Six Nations final day - who will win the title?
15/03/2025
France’s convincing win over Ireland on Saturday guaranteed that the Six Nations would go down to its final day. With four teams hypothetically in the running, today’s triple header will decide the tournament. So, what does each team need and who will ultimately lift the trophy?
Pictured above: England will be hoping that Scotland can tumble France, when the two sides meet at the Stade de France later today
Ireland
Ireland kick off today’s triple header at 14:30 GMT, when they travel to the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. They will be aiming to lay down a gauntlet, by securing a bonus point win and a big margin of victory. This would put them top of the table on 19 points (4 more than England and 3 more than France).
Pictured above: the Six Nations standings going into the final day
Assuming Ireland are successful, they would then be reliant on England falling short against Wales in some capacity and France losing at home to Scotland (or drawing without securing a bonus point to finish on 18 points). Simple, right?
Although Ireland need favourable results in both the later games, they have some cause for optimism. France, Scotland and England all secured bonus points in their respective victories over Italy and it’s likely Ireland will follow suit. This would put them in pole position to capitalise on any slip ups later in the day.
England
England are second in the running order and will travel to the Millennium stadium for a 16:45 GMT kick off against Wales.
Pictured above: England’s bonus point win over Italy last Sunday put them 1 point above Ireland in the table
Going into the game, England will know exactly what they need to overtake Ireland and position themselves as Champions-to-be if France lose to Scotland.
Assuming Ireland finish on 19 points, England would need either a bonus point win to go top of the table on 20 points, or a victory margin within 7 points of Ireland’s to go top of the table on points difference.
Neither of these outcomes will be easy. Although Wales have lost their last 15 games, they did not concede a bonus point against Ireland or Italy and they lost by a margin of 9 points or less in their last 3 games.
England will therefore have an uphill task to still be in contention when France kick off against Scotland.
France
France will close out the final day with an 20:00 GMT start against Scotland at the Stade de France. For France the equation will be simple - win against Scotland and they will almost certainly lift the trophy.
A bonus point win will give France an unassailable 21 points at the top of the table. If France win, but fail to secure the bonus point, it is mathematically possible that England could lift the title on 20 points. However, England would need to have beaten Wales by 86 points (plus France’s winning margin) to overturn France’s points difference. If England or Ireland finish second on 19 points, then France would only need a bonus point draw to lift the trophy.
Although France will go into the game against Scotland as favourites, they will be without former world rugby player of the year, Antoine Dupont, who ruptured cruciate ligaments in his knee in the victory over Ireland last Saturday. Considering the last 3 games between France and Scotland have been decided by 4 points or less, this could prove a nervy affair.
Scotland
Stanger things have happened, but this one is unlikely. For Scotland to win the tournament they would (amongst other things) need to beat France by 52 points, England to lose to Wales and Ireland to lose to Italy.
Verdict
France are the favourites. They are in form following their win over Ireland, they have the home advantage and they will most likely go into the game against Scotland knowing a win will secure the title.
However, Ireland and England are both in contention. They will be focussed on their own battle to assume pole position in case France stumble at the final hurdle.